Research Projects
Economics of Climate Change Adaptation
NWO Innovation Research Scheme - VENI (2012-2016) ‘Changing climate – changing behavior: integrating adaptive economic behavior in land-use models’, €250.000
Climate change threatens economic development by increasing the probability and severity of natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina and Sandy, or recent European and Australian flooding. Rising hazard risks affect land-use and economic behavior in land markets potentially causing non-marginal changes. New information about risks, socio-economic dynamics, and exchange of opinions through a social network alters individual risk perceptions, land-use choices and associated potential damage. This presents a major scientific challenge for current policy support tools, in which economic components are designed to tackle marginal changes and omit behavioral adaptation triggered by changing climate.
The VENI project addresses this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics and evolution of individual risk perception into land-use models. Within this project I develop spatial agent-based models linking increasing climate-induced risks with empirically-grounded adaptive behavior. It uniquely combines knowledge from land-use modeling, spatial economics, climate change research, agent-based modeling, and theories of behavior under uncertainty. Data from hedonic analysis of past housing transactions and data about potential dynamics of future risk perception derived from human subjects’ experiments is being employed.
The project focuses on coastal urban developments in the USA (North Carolina) and on urban areas in the Dutch delta. Its broader scientific goal is to explore and manage aggregated effects of individual risk perception dynamics in hazard-prone areas, providing new policy support tools for climate adaptation.
Collaborating institutions: East Carolina University (USA), Deltares (NL)
Research output: see papers #15, 16, 20 and 21, and Book chapter #6.
Climate change threatens economic development by increasing the probability and severity of natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina and Sandy, or recent European and Australian flooding. Rising hazard risks affect land-use and economic behavior in land markets potentially causing non-marginal changes. New information about risks, socio-economic dynamics, and exchange of opinions through a social network alters individual risk perceptions, land-use choices and associated potential damage. This presents a major scientific challenge for current policy support tools, in which economic components are designed to tackle marginal changes and omit behavioral adaptation triggered by changing climate.
The VENI project addresses this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics and evolution of individual risk perception into land-use models. Within this project I develop spatial agent-based models linking increasing climate-induced risks with empirically-grounded adaptive behavior. It uniquely combines knowledge from land-use modeling, spatial economics, climate change research, agent-based modeling, and theories of behavior under uncertainty. Data from hedonic analysis of past housing transactions and data about potential dynamics of future risk perception derived from human subjects’ experiments is being employed.
The project focuses on coastal urban developments in the USA (North Carolina) and on urban areas in the Dutch delta. Its broader scientific goal is to explore and manage aggregated effects of individual risk perception dynamics in hazard-prone areas, providing new policy support tools for climate adaptation.
Collaborating institutions: East Carolina University (USA), Deltares (NL)
Research output: see papers #15, 16, 20 and 21, and Book chapter #6.
Knowledge for Climate (2011-2015) - 'The role of individual behavior and social interaction in adaptation of the agricultural sector to resist increasing climate induced drought risk: a bottom-up approach'
The PhD student - Rianne van Duinen - aims to understand the role of individual behavior and social interactions in the adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate-induced droughts in the Netherlands. Economy, and agricultural sector in particular, is seen as a complex adaptive system. Boundedly-rational heterogeneous agents make decisions on whether to adopt a drought adaptation strategy, and exchange information on the perceived probability and severity of droughts as well as on the perceived costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies within the social network. Interactions may cause behavioral changes among farmers, and in particular changes in their risk perceptions. As a result, the potential diffusion of adaptation strategies may improve the resilience of the whole agricultural sector. Expectations on the system’s drought vulnerability feeds back into the agent’s decisions. To understand macro scale changes in drought vulnerability, we investigate individual adaptation motivation and learning by using a survey (carried out in 2013) and employ the behavioral data from this survey to design an agent-based modelling. The projections under different climate change scenarios and scenarios of different behavioral adaptation models are explored.
We work together with Prof. Anne van der Veen, Dr. Peter Geurts and Dr. Wander Jager.
Collaborating institutions: University of Groningen (NL)
Research output: see paper #17, 18 and 22 and Conference papers
The PhD student - Rianne van Duinen - aims to understand the role of individual behavior and social interactions in the adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate-induced droughts in the Netherlands. Economy, and agricultural sector in particular, is seen as a complex adaptive system. Boundedly-rational heterogeneous agents make decisions on whether to adopt a drought adaptation strategy, and exchange information on the perceived probability and severity of droughts as well as on the perceived costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies within the social network. Interactions may cause behavioral changes among farmers, and in particular changes in their risk perceptions. As a result, the potential diffusion of adaptation strategies may improve the resilience of the whole agricultural sector. Expectations on the system’s drought vulnerability feeds back into the agent’s decisions. To understand macro scale changes in drought vulnerability, we investigate individual adaptation motivation and learning by using a survey (carried out in 2013) and employ the behavioral data from this survey to design an agent-based modelling. The projections under different climate change scenarios and scenarios of different behavioral adaptation models are explored.
We work together with Prof. Anne van der Veen, Dr. Peter Geurts and Dr. Wander Jager.
Collaborating institutions: University of Groningen (NL)
Research output: see paper #17, 18 and 22 and Conference papers
Community-based adaptation to climate-induced drought risks in agricultural sector in Indonesia (2014-2017)
The PhD student - Sisfahyuni Azis (Ifha) - studies farmers' adaptation to droughts in Indonesia focusing specifically on the links between private and public adaptation. The overall goal of this study is to explore to what extent individual interests, norms, social interactions and institutional regulations guide stakeholders in adaptation to climate-driven droughts in the agricultural sector at different scales (private - meso - public). A survey to capture potential farmers' behavioral change is planned. This study will be conducted in three phases. The first phase focuses on adaptation practices on micro-meso level. The second phase will explore the planned adjustment in coping with the climate-induced drought risks within macro economic and policy environment. In third phase the institutional model bridging the private and public adaptation will be design.
The PhD student - Sisfahyuni Azis (Ifha) - studies farmers' adaptation to droughts in Indonesia focusing specifically on the links between private and public adaptation. The overall goal of this study is to explore to what extent individual interests, norms, social interactions and institutional regulations guide stakeholders in adaptation to climate-driven droughts in the agricultural sector at different scales (private - meso - public). A survey to capture potential farmers' behavioral change is planned. This study will be conducted in three phases. The first phase focuses on adaptation practices on micro-meso level. The second phase will explore the planned adjustment in coping with the climate-induced drought risks within macro economic and policy environment. In third phase the institutional model bridging the private and public adaptation will be design.
Climate change and livelihoods in Bangladesh: Vulnerability and adaptation among coastal fishing communities (2012-2016)
The PhD student - Mohammad Assaduzzaman (Asad) - studies livelihood options of some of the most poorest communities in Bangladesh. He focuses specifically on coastal areas where the issue of adaptation to climate change is particularly urgent. This research uses survey and focus groups methods to understand the alternatives that are available for poor fishing communities in coastal areas, including climate-driven migration.
We work together with Dr. Behrooz Hassani Mahmooei, Monash University, Australia
The PhD student - Mohammad Assaduzzaman (Asad) - studies livelihood options of some of the most poorest communities in Bangladesh. He focuses specifically on coastal areas where the issue of adaptation to climate change is particularly urgent. This research uses survey and focus groups methods to understand the alternatives that are available for poor fishing communities in coastal areas, including climate-driven migration.
We work together with Dr. Behrooz Hassani Mahmooei, Monash University, Australia
Flood insurance and climate change (2012 - 2014), Deltares - IIASA
This project employes spatially-explicit stochastic optimization modelling to quantify fair location-based insurance premiums. This research project focuses on the design of a flood-loss sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific damages. The analysis is guided by the integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM, IIASA) model consisting of GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. We look at the spatial distribution of flood risks and corresponding insurance premiums in the area around Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
I work on this project together with Dr. Tatiana Ermolieva and Dr. Mesfin Mekonnen.
Collaborating institutions: Deltares (NL) and IIASA (Austria)
Research output: see paper #23
This project employes spatially-explicit stochastic optimization modelling to quantify fair location-based insurance premiums. This research project focuses on the design of a flood-loss sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific damages. The analysis is guided by the integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM, IIASA) model consisting of GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. We look at the spatial distribution of flood risks and corresponding insurance premiums in the area around Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
I work on this project together with Dr. Tatiana Ermolieva and Dr. Mesfin Mekonnen.
Collaborating institutions: Deltares (NL) and IIASA (Austria)
Research output: see paper #23
Climate-driven droughts in Australia: adaptation options for wineries (2012-2013)
The project focuses on Australian wineries and potential droughts they face. A team of Australian researchers developed scenarios of variation in the groundwater levels and carried our an intensive field work with farmers to elicit their decision-making in this risky context. The project makes steps forward to incorporate essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. We developed a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling.
I collaborate on this project with Dr. Sondoss El Sawah, Dr. Joseph Guillaume and Prof _Tony Jakeman
Collaborating institutions: iCAM, ANU (Australia)
Research output: see paper #19
The project focuses on Australian wineries and potential droughts they face. A team of Australian researchers developed scenarios of variation in the groundwater levels and carried our an intensive field work with farmers to elicit their decision-making in this risky context. The project makes steps forward to incorporate essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. We developed a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling.
I collaborate on this project with Dr. Sondoss El Sawah, Dr. Joseph Guillaume and Prof _Tony Jakeman
Collaborating institutions: iCAM, ANU (Australia)
Research output: see paper #19